Beginning Wednesday, hockey fans around the world will be getting a Stanley Cup Finals that no one expected. Two teams that no one picked to get this far–New Jersey wasn’t even supposed to make the playoffs–yet they’ve proven to be the two best teams in the league this season. Anybody who told you they picked Jersey and L.A. is a liar.
I went 2-0 in the Conference Finals, bringing my prediction record to 6-8. Let’s take a look at who will hoist the most prestigious trophy in the history of professional sports.
History: This is the first time in NHL history that two American-born captains will square off in the Stanley Cup finals–either Dustin Brown or Zach Parise will join Derian Hatcher as the only U.S.-born captains of a Stanley Cup-winning team. The Kings are attempting to become the fourth consecutive team to win the Stanley Cup after opening its season in Europe, but are still looking for their first Stanley Cup in their 44th NHL season. The fact that the Devils have home-ice advantage means absolutely nothing–the Kings, who eliminated the West’s top three teams to get to this point, are the first team in league history to go a perfect 8-0 on the road en route to the Cup finals–L.A. has also gone 3-0 in each round so far. The Devils, however, are no stranger to road success–they won twice at Madison Square Garden in the Eastern Conference finals against the Rangers, and eliminated the Panthers and Flyers on the road as well.
The Kings’ offensive struggles during the regular season have been noted, finishing 29th in goals scored (188 goals, or 2.29 per game)–only two Stanley Cup finalists in the modern era (since 1943-44) scored fewer goals per game during the regular season. The Kings, however, have averaged 2.93 goals per game during the postseason. Martin Brodeur and Patrik Elias are the only Devils remaining from their 2003 Stanley Cup-winning team. Brodeur and Elias have played a combined total of 2,233 regular-season games with the Devils, the only franchise either has ever known. New Jersey is making its longest playoff run since 2003 when they won the Cup, while the Kings are the second No. 8 seed to reach the Stanley Cup finals since the current conference-based playoff format was adopted in 1994. Regardless of who wins, either team will set a record for the lowest-seeded team to ever win Lord Stanley.
Systems: Kings strong defence and tight forecheck has gotten them to the Finals, but it’s the same recipe the Devils have employed. In order to expose their opponents’ weaknesses, they’ll first need to look at their own. The Devils are also incredible deep, relying on all four lines to score. Relative no-names like David Clarkson David Clarkson, who scored 30 goals in the regular season, added three this postseason (all game-winners), with seven assists. The no-name line of Stephen Gionta/Ryan Carter/Steve Bernier has also been solid–Carter scored the game-winner in Game 5 and a great pass by Gionta, and Carter also opened the scoring scoring in Game 6 with assists from both linemates.
Weaknesses: The Kings’ special teams play has been upside down. They have five goals playing 4-on-5 this spring, while only three goals playing 5-on-4. The other three power-play goals they have were 5-on-3. They’re scoring at a paltry 8.1% clip, (15th of 16 playoff teams). On the flip side, their penalty kill has gone 91.2%, good for second behind the Blues, including five short-handed goals. It sounds wrong, but it’s possible that these guys are even more dangerous with one less player on the ice. For New Jersey, The Devils, their PK has hit a wall after setting a modern-day record for efficiency during the regular season. They allowed four PPGs to the Rangers, but then shut the door, going 6-for-6 on the kill in the final three games. Their PP also scored in two of their last three games.
Goaltending: Jonathan Quick, who’s incredible regular season play has made him a Vezina candidate, has continued his strong play into the playoffs. He has a 12-2 record with a miniscule 1.54 GAA and .946 SV%, both tops in the league. Quick has only allowed more than two goals twice, and has not allowed more than three even once. Across the ring, at age-40 and 14 years older than Quick, stands Martin Brodeur, a three-time Stanley Cup winner and four-time Vezina winner who holds the NHL record for wins and shutouts. Arguably the greatest goalie in NHL history, Brodeur has been both solid and shaky at times throughout the playoffs. Many people say you can’t have a goalie battle in hockey, but that’s never been true. Depending on which Brodeur we see in the final round, the odds can swing dramatically. His 2.04 GAA and .923 SV%, however, are his best numbers since Jersey’s last Cup in 2003. If this is Brodeur’s final year, a fourth Cup win would be a particularly sweet icing on the cake–he’s trying to become the ninth player in NHL history (and second goaltender) to win the Stanley Cup in three different decades (1995, 2000, 2003).
Battles: The Kings have been stellar up the middle through the playoffs. Mike Richards and Anze Kopitar have been a solid 1-2 combo. The line combo of Dustin Brown, Kopitar and Justin Williams has also been crucial–they’ve combined for 42 points in 14 games and a plus-32 rating, in addition to four short-handed goals, three game-winners and have opened the game’s scoring five times. Jersey, who ranks last of all 16 postseason teams in faceoff percentage, will counter with the underrated Travis Zajac, Adam Henrique. Zajac, who missed most of the season with an Achilles injury, has seven goals and is just one behind the lead. Henrique, meanwhile, was the hero after scoring 1:03 into overtime Friday to eliminate the Rangers. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Henrique is the second player in NHL history to score two series-clinching overtime goals in one playoff year.
Jeff Carter vs. Ilya Kovalchuk: The Kings’ trade deadline acquisition is heating up at just the right time. Carter scored a hat trick in Game 2 against the Coyotes, but also recorded two assists in Game 5. He had only one goal and three assists in the opening two rounds before his five points against the Coyotes. Kovalchuk–who almost went to the Kings before he ultimately signed with the Devils– has had a solid 1-2 punch with himself and Parise, combining for 14 goals and 32 points this playoffs. The Russian sniper leads all playoff scorers with 18 points, and also leads in assists and power-play goals. After so many questions regarding his attitude and work ethic, Kovalchuk has put together the longest Stanley Cup run of his career. Can he finish it?
Pick: Kings in 6. My gut initially said Kings, but I’ve been wrong so many times, I flipped to the Devils. Who the hell knows.
Prediction History:
NHL
2007-08: 12-3 (80%)
2008-09: 10-5 (67%)
2009-10: 9-6 (60%)
2010-11: 8-7 (53%)
2011-12: 7-8 (47%)
Total: 46/75 = 61%
NBA
2007-08: 11-4 (73%)
2008-09: 9-6 (60%)
2009-10: 11-4 (73%)
2010-11: 11-4 (73%)
Total: 42/60 = 70%
MLB
2008: 5-2 (71%)
2009: 4-3 (57%)
2010: 3-4 (43%)
2011: 4-3 (57%)
Total: 16/28 = 57%
NFL
2008-09: 9-2 (82%)
2009-10: 7-4 (64%)
2010-11: 8-3 (73%)
2011-12: 8-3 (73%)
Total: 32/44 = 73%