The offseason winter madness in Major League Baseball has already begun. GMs will meet next week in Milwaukee prior to the quarterly owners’ meetings. Owners will also address a potential sale of the Houston Astros and the state of the Los Angeles Dodgers post-Frank McCourt. Finally, we’ll receive an update regarding the league’s collective bargaining agreement, which is set to expire on December 11.
We’ve already seen some trades this winter–the Indians acquired RHP Derek Lowe for a prospect, while the Giants pulled a headscratcher, sending LHP Jonathan Sanchez to the Royals for OF Melky Cabrera and a prospect. ESPN recently conducted interviews with 28 general managers, assistant GMs, scouts and player personnel people by phone and email on the condition of anonymity regarding the biggest questions heading into the offseason. Here’s my take on what’s about to go down:
1. Which free-agent first baseman, Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder, will provide the best value over the life of his next contract?
Answer: Fielder. The free agent market isn’t very deep this winter, but the two biggest names atop the list are among the best in baseball. First, you have your King, Albert Pujols–445 career homeruns, a three-time MVP, nine-time All-Star and St. Louis icon. Then, you have your Prince, Prince Fielder–since 2007, he ranks second with 200 homeruns and is fourth in slugging percentage (.553).
While there’s no denying what Pujols has accomplished in his Hall of Fame career, or that he hasn’t been the best player in baseball this generation, but the age difference between the two gives Fielder the edge. Pujols, 32 in January, is four years and four months older than Fielder. A free agency contract is about projecting what a player will do, not what he has done. Many are quick to point out that Pujols, born in the Dominican Republic, could be hiding his true age (see: Miguel Tejada), but he maintains that his birth certificate is 100% legitimate.
Pujols showed impressive healing power in recovering so quickly from a fractured wrist in June, but he’s had injury problems before, both with his back and heel. His monster numbers after the All-Star break are jaw-dropping, but one thing we may need to keep an eye on was his career-low 61 walks, which comes as a complete surprise given that he’s been anywhere from 69-115 in his career. For some, a declining walk rate is a sign that a hitter’s bat is slowing and he needs to start his swing earlier to catch up to the heat–Pujols, however, isn’t having this issue yet, but it remains something to keep an eye on going forward.
As for Fielder, his biggest criticism is his weight, but so far, it hasn’t hindered his ability to perform. Since his rookie year, Fielder has appeared in 157, 158, 159, 162, 161 and 162 games.
Although many believe Pujols will re-sign in St. Louis, the best bet for either player is to sign in AL, where they can slide into the DH slot once their bodies really begin to break down on them. One case of a no-no contract was what the Phillies gave 1B Ryan Howard–in the first year of his 5-year/$125M contract, Howard tears his Achilles tendon. Not to mention, he’s on the wrong side of 30.
2. Which free-agent closer, Joe Nathan or Frankie Rodriguez, has a better chance of regaining his former glory?
Answer: Rodriguez.
Nathan, 36, will be two years removed from Tommy John surgery on Opening Day. He returned during the 2011 season and posted a 2-1 record and a 4.84 ERA in 48 appearances as a closer and setup man for the Twins. His fastball averaged a touch above 92 mph, which is roughly 2.5 mph slower than his career peak.
Rodriguez, 29, is now three years removed from breaking Bobby Thigpen’s record with 62 saves. His fastball has lost its ‘oomph’ as well, but K-Rod has turned to his secondary pitches more frequently, throwing his changeup and curveball 40% of the time during the 2011 season.
While K-Rod can be a diva in the bullpen, as seen shortly after he was acquired by the Brewers. He began complaining about the lack of save opportunities he was being given, but after a talk with his agent Scott Boras, and a discussion about being a better teammate, Rodriguez eventually settled into the setup role behind RHP John Axford.
Despite all that, K-Rod still averaged 9.92 K/9 this season, and his swing-and-miss rate was the same as it was in 2008 when he recorded 62 saves with the Angels. What he’s had to do (since his fastball is no longer what it once was) is tweak his delivery in order to become a deception and location pitcher, something Nathan must do as well. Rodriguez has already proved his ability to command the zone and pitch well despite a lower velocity, while Nathan hasn’t been as successful.
3. Which 2011 free-agent signee has the best chance of rebounding next season? Adam Dunn(.159 with 11 home runs), Carl Crawford (.255 BA, .289 OBP, 18 stolen bases) or Jayson Werth(.232, 69 runs scored, 58 RBIs).
Answer: Crawford.
Werth’s numbers left a lot to be desired in the first of his 7-year/$126M contract, which confirmed my thoughts all along–Werth is an outstanding complimentary piece, as seen in the Phillies’ lineup, but he’s not good enough to be the centrepiece of a team. In Washington, the lineup was considerably weaker than in Philadelphia, and mixed with playing half of the games at pitcher-friendly Nationals Park, a stat decline wasn’t hard to predict. In 2009, Werth hit 11 home runs to right or right-center field with the Phillies–last year, he hit only four in that direction.
That said, Werth is still a tremendous all-around talent. Defensively, he’s a solid outfielder with an elite arm. At the plate, he has great discipline, draws lots of walks, is a good base-stealer and can hit the gaps. Even if Werth is unable to reach the 30 homerun plateau again while with the Nats, he remains a very useful and potent weapon.
My pick, Crawford, is the youngest of the three players at 30. His biggest thing is to take a breath and relax. The jump from Tampa to Boston is ridiculous in terms of pressure and media coverage, so it’s understandable that his nerves got the best of him as he tried to make a good impression as early into his 7-year/$142M contract as possible.
Crawford, however, relies heavily on his speed, and as that diminishes, his value as a player will begin to fall quickly.
Meanwhile, Dunn was just bad. Of all the three players on this list, he may have the most desire to have a bounce-back season in order to prove to all the critics that his career isn’t over. Many will point to Cardinals’ OF Lance Berkman as one of the best bounce-back seasons in recent memory, but Dunn is in far worse shape and is a much slower runner.
4. Which vacant managerial job poses the toughest challenge: Boston, St. Louis or the Chicago Cubs?
Answer: Red Sox.
Neither team has it good coming into the season–St. Louis is trying to find a replacement for Hall of Famer Tony La Russa, fresh off the team’s World Series Championship; the Cubs and their 103-year title drought brings with them a roster lacking talent, and with the new front office involving GM Theo Epstein, much scrutiny can be expected; lastly is Boston, who are one of the most analyzed teams in the league. They bring with them a 7-19 September collapse in what is one of the greatest postseason failures of all-time. The new manager in Beantown will replace Terry Francona, who was visibly stressed following his departure from the team. They’ll constantly be answering questions about team chemistry and last season’s late collapse, even though they weren’t involved in it. In Boston, there are a lot more questions to be answered than just winning games. The nightmare for whoever answers the call will begin shortly.
5. Which lefty starter, C.J. Wilson (31) or Mark Buehrle (32) is the better bet to perform over the course of his free-agent deal?
Answer: Buehrle.
Many, including myself, feel that Buehrle is far older than Wilson, but they’re roughly the same age. Buehrle has been kicking around since 2001, and he’s currently amidst a 11 straight 200-inning seasons. A fast worker on the mound, Buehrle is a workhorse innings-eater known for his reliability and durability. He has the fourth-slowest fastball in the game at 5.6 mph, but is the clear-cut safer option of the two.
Wilson gave the Rangers 16 wins, 223 innings and a 2.94 ERA in his second season as a starter. Wilson, however, suffered a very rough postseason, and issues regarding his command became apparent. While there’s no questioning that Wilson is a great pitcher, one must ask themselves about the defence behind him, notably Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre and occasionally Michael Young, who are all elite defensive players.
Wilson will likely get paid as a No. 1 starter this winter, but he’s more of a No. 2 on a team. The general consensus around the league is that Buehrle will sign a 3-year contract, while Wilson will get a 5 or 6-year deal. The length of their deals and total money invested will also help determine who will better live up to their end of the contract.
6. Which 2011 September-collapse team has a better chance of making the playoffs next year: Boston or Atlanta?
Answer: Red Sox.
Both teams were on the wrong side of history last season–Boston blew a 9-game lead in late-August to lose out to the Rays for the AL Wild Card, while Atlanta coughed up a 10.5-game Wild Card lead over the Cardinals.
Atlanta has great young arms, but all of them encountered considerably larger workloads, and it’s fair to ask if they can handle that again. The Braves ranked 10th with 641 runs scored, a number they’ll look to improve upon this winter. But with an $87M payroll, budgetary issues may arise. While Atlanta plays in a weaker division–the powerhouse Phillies are on the back-end of their juggernaut, while the Nats, Marlins and Mets are all rebuilding–they do have a good chance of winning the division, but a better chance at the Wild Card.
In Boston, the BoSox have better tools, but play in the hardest division in baseball. The Yankees are, well, the Yankees, and the Rays rotation has gotten even better with the addition of LHP Matt Moore. Toronto continues to improve, but will be the fourth-place team for the next few seasons. Don’t worry about Baltimore.
7. Which young pitching phenom would you rather have: Yu Darvish, Stephen Strasburg orMatt Moore?
Answer: Moore.
This is definitely the hardest question posed to the executives.
Moore’s name came up during the postseason, where he lit up the radar gun consistently at 95 mph with what seemed like minimal effort. After striking out 700 batters in 497 innings in Tampa Bay’s minor league system, he froze the Yankees in a late-September start and held Texas to one run over 10 innings in the ALDS. And given that he’s a lefty pitcher, his value goes up even more.
Strasburg, 15 months removed from Tommy John surgery, still has electric stuff, and has almost worked all the way back from his surgery, but he’ll be on an innings limit for 2012 as the Nats do their best to protect him. If he stays healthy, he’s a future ace–that’s a big ‘if,’ though, as he’s already had major elbow surgery at just 23 years of age.
Darvish, the Japanse import, is among the top free agents for this winter. At 6’5″, he has great stuff on the mound. But with the very inconsistent history of Japanese pitchers in the MLB, it’s hard to invest fully in the 25-year-old. It’s a new type of baseball, one that needs to be adjusted to, and some simply can’t handle it (see: Daisuke Matsuzaka).