Wow. What a way to kick off the NHL playoffs. We saw four amazing 7-game series, capped off by an incredible Canucks/Blackhawks game, as well as the Habs/Bruins. Did anyone see Vancouver getting out to a 3-0 lead, blowing it, and then winning in OT on a lucky bounce in Game 7? I sure didn’t. And because of that lucky bounce, the knucklepuck shot that beat Corey Crawford, we’re going to crown a brand new Stanley Cup Champion this year. That’s exactly what makes playoff hockey the best thing in the world: it’s totally unpredictable. Absolutely anything can happen.
Eastern Conference
(1) Washington Capitals vs. (5) Tampa Bay Lightning
The Caps are hoping they’ve shaken off all their bad karma by knocking off the Rangers, who eliminated them in last year’s playoffs. The Bolts, however, are no pushover: they fought back from a 3-1 series deficit to beat the Penguins in Round 1. If Ovechkin keeps lighting it up, Tampa’s going to be in tough trying to slow them down. Semin is going to need to pick it up too: he looked good in the early part of the series, but ran out of gas the rest of the way. Keep this in mind: the last time Tampa Bay made it to Round 2 was 2004, when they won the Stanley Cup. The Bolts will need to keep a strong forecheck on the Caps’ blueline, particularly Mike Green, who probably isn’t 100% from his concussion. Steve Downie and Ryan Malone and company will need to force him to play the puck in order to generate some turnovers. One thing I noticed about the Caps this postseason was their ability to fight back. They went 2-1 when giving up the first goal of the game. In fact, their Game 4 OT win came on the heels of an early 3-0 deficit. From Tampa’s side, they outscored the Pens 13-4 in the final three games of the series, in addition to now allowing a single powerplay goal in the final three games. I think rest will play a factor in the series, so I’ll give Washington the advantage.
Goaltending will be another key issue, where Michal Neuvirth was rock-solid, and Dwayne Roloson was iffy. The Lightning will need to keep getting pucks to the net with traffic to make life difficult for Neuvirth. Also of note will be the Caps’ PK vs. the Bolts’ PP. Washington went 19/20 on the PK against the Rangers, while the Bolts were No. 2 in the NHL on the powerplay during the season. They even scored eight powerplay goals in three games against the Pens. While that’s solid, they’ll need to spread that out throughout the series. Overall, I think the Caps advance. If so, it’s their first Eastern Conference finals appearance since 1998.
Pick: Caps in 6
(2) Philadelphia Flyers vs. (3) Boston Bruins
Uh-oh. Awk-ward! Last season, the Bruins had a 3-0 series stranglehold on the Bruins before Philly forced a Game 7. In the final game, Boston went up 3-0 before blowing the lead and losing the series, becoming just the third team in NHL history to come back from a 3-0 series deficit. If anyone has any concerns about the Flyers’ depth this postseason, it can officially be put to rest, as they led the all Eastern Conference teams with 16 five-on-five goals. Often, teams have a theory of building a team from the net out, which would make you think that the Flyers and their trio of inconsistent goaltenders means they should be done. That said, it hasn’t mattered so far, and didn’t matter last season when they lost in the Cup finals. I’ll give the goaltending advantage to Boston, who has potential Vezina Trophy-winner Tim Thomas between the pipes.
On special teams, the Bruins didn’t score a single powerplay goal against the Habs in Round 1, meaning they could simply explode this round. The Flyers, meanwhile, struggled in Games 1-5, but went off in Game 6 & 7. Philly also gave up seven PK goals in Round 1, a stat that will need to change if they want any chance of advancing. Losing Jeff Carter is a huge blow to the Flyers, but they have depth (namely, Ville Leino) to pick up the slack. On the other side, Boston will need more evenly-distributed offence from their forwards to match Philly. Since both of these teams are so evenly-matched defensively, a lot is going to come down to scoring.
You know both teams are going to come out flying physically, and we should see a lot of chippy, aggressive hockey, so my big deciding factor will be the faceoff between Zdeno Chara and Chris Pronger. Pronger’s hand is not 100%, but his return to the ice makes Philly a brand new team. Chara did not play well against the Habs, recording just one assist, but as with Pronger, his presence on the ice changes the way the B’s play. While goaltending will probably become an issu for the Flyers, I see Boston’s lack of scoring against the Habs as a major concern.
Pick: Flyers in 6
Western Conference
(1) Vancouver Canucks vs. (5) Nashville Predators
I don’t think a lot of people saw these two advancing. Both teams had lots going against them: Vancouver had been eliminated by the Blackhawks for two consecutive years, and Nashville had never made it out of the first round of the playoffs before. The Canucks are emotionally drained after an amazing series, but they’ll need a quick turnaround. They tied the season series with the Preds 2-2, and all four games were close and low-scoring. I’d expect to see more of the same.
I love this goaltending matchup. Pekka Rinne and Roberto Luongo are both up for the Vezina, and both stunk. Rinne gave up 19 goals in six games against the Ducks and has a weak .876 SV%. He was solid in Game 6, though, and came through when called upon. Meanwhile, Luongo went from the goat in Games 4 & 5 to being the deciding factor in Game 7, making 31 saves.
Nashville finished dead last of the 16 teams on the PK, and with Vancouver having such a lethal PP, any stupid penalties Nashville takes will hurt them. Defensively, Shea Weber and Ryan Suter shut down Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry, but now they’ll have the Sedin twins to worry about. I wouldn’t be all that surprised if Nashville won, but I think the ‘Nucks win over the ‘Hawks will get them over the top.
Pick: Canucks in 7
(2) San Jose Sharks vs. (3) Detroit Red Wings
These two will face off for the second consecutive year in the exact same round. Last year, they beat a fatigued Red Wings team in 5 games. Now, the Wings are rested after sweeping the Coyotes, even without the services of Henrik Zetterberg.
The goaltending matchup is very interesting. Antti Niemi was pulled twice against the Kings, and sports an ugly 3.99 GAA and .863 SV%. Howard has a strong 2.50 GAA and .915 SV% after four straight wins against Phoenix. Both teams are super deep this year, and both are arguably the deepest teams in the NHL. The Sharks entered the playoffs with the second-best PP in the NHL, but faltered, going 2/23 against the Kings. The Wings, however, were a solid 4/15. On the PK, the Wings struggled, going 12/18.
The Wings will be hungry to avenge last year’s loss, and their demolision of the Coyotes proved that. The Sharks were inconsistent in Round 1, which raises many questions. LA made life hell for the questionable Sharks’ blueline, causing a bunch of turnovers from strong forechecking. Now, a team like Detroit that excels in it can do even more damage.
Pick: Wings in 7
Prediction History
NHL
2007-08: 12-3 (80%)
2008-09: 10-5 (67%)
2009-10: 9-6 (60%)
2010-11: 4-4
Total: 29/45 = 69%
NBA
2007-08: 11-4 (73%)
2008-09: 9-6 (60%)
2009-10: 11-4 (73%)
Total: 29/45 = 69%
MLB
2008: 5-2 (71%)
2009: 4-3 (57%)
2010: 3-4 (43%)
Total: 12/21 = 57%
NFL
2008-09: 9-2 (82%)
2009-10: 7-4 (64%)
2010-11: 8-3 (73%)
Total: 24/33 = 73%